A Billion Dollar Thought Experiment: National Cognitive Wingman
The US Economy’s GDP according to Wikipedia is $18 trillion – that’s trillion with a “T” – thousands of billions. Massive.
Now let’s imagine if we could create a machine, accessible to the numerous stewards of the US Economy, that would be SYNOPTIC and HOLISTIC – providing a solution to help them make better decisions, manage risk, collaborate with each other – and generally be better stewards.
- COST BENEFIT – the system would not be cheap to build and operate. But it would also offer, if it worked, sizable benefits.
- COST: On the cost side, let’s imagine a cheap insurance policy – say a fraction (1%) of 1/100 of one year’s GDP, over a decade. 1% of 1% is 0.0001. To put that in perspective, if you owned a $1m home, and applied the same ratio, that’s $100 insurance policy that covers 10 years. For the US Economy, a similar ‘insurance policy’ would be $1.8 billion. As a benchmark, the F-35 program is $300b+
- BENEFIT: This is hard to price, but we can ask – what is the value of, over a dozen key decisions each year, of eliminating one mistake, or better managing risk. Housing bubbles; S&L; Derivatives WMDs; Long term economic stagnation; regional dangers, etc..
So might we build/buy for nearly $2b?
UX ACCESSIBLE - Natural Language / Human Interface (Verbal and Visual) - speak/converse and see to allow normal humans to use it
DATA SYNOPTIC - Plugged into nearly everything
HOLISTIC - Interconnected - and aware of nuance of relationships
SMART - Can answer the hard questions (mathy/predictive, or knowledge retrieval)
EVOLVING & LEARNING - understanding shortfalls, and closing gaps.
SAFE & ETHICAL - of course
PROACTIVE and/or RESPONSIVE - alerting when bad things are happening that users likely to care about.
About this blog
Cognitive Wingman - Never Walk Alone
Created: December 20, 2016English