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New York Times Data Team Using R & "Leo" Model for Senate Election Forecast

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POSTED IN: Data Analytics & Visualization Blog

Overview (from R-Bloggers)

Nate Silver's departure to relaunch FiveThirtyEight.com left a bit of a hole at the New York Times, which The Upshot — the new data journalism practice at the Times — seeks to fill. And they've gotten off to a great start with the newSenate forecasting model, called Leo. Leo was created by Amanda Cox(longtime graphics editor at the NYT) and Josh Katz (creator of the Dialect Quiz), and uses a similar poll-aggregation methodology to that used by Silver. The model itself is implemented in the R language, and the R code is available for inspection at GitHub.

What is shown here

This is basically my newbie journey in accessing the New York Times' GIT-based code.  Added a couple of lines to visualize the data.   Also pulled various links into one place below. 

Links for Context

Get Source Code & Data:

https://github.com/TheUpshot/leo-senate-model

Brief instructions

This model, created by Amanda Cox and Josh Katz, combines polls with other information to predict how many Senate races Democrats and Republicans will win this year --

  • Please make sure the following R packages have been installed: gamgtoolslubridatemapsRJSONIOgdata,plotrixzoo

  • Change directory to the top-level working directory of this Git repository.

  • Run: Rscript master-public.R

  • Prediction output can then be found in the data-publisher/public/_big_assets/ subdirectory.

Basic Code (after you pull down GIT Zip):

setwd("C:/Users/Home/Documents/DTL Data Viz Community/leo-senate-model2/")

workingDir  <-  getwd()
dataDir     <-  paste(workingDir, "data-publisher/", sep = "/")
modelDir    <-  paste(workingDir, "model", sep = "/")
fundyDir    <-  paste(workingDir, "fundamentals", sep = "/")

### run the model (make sure install all the packages above)
setwd(modelDir)
n.days <- 30      # number of days to sim. set to "all" to run all days. 
just.today <- T   # if T, overrides n.days
n.sims <- 50000
source("senate-model-2014.R")

if (just.today) source("combine-data.R")

## OK, let's fire this into a quick viz
setwd("C:/Users/Home/Documents/DTL Data Viz Community/leo-senate-model2/data-publisher/public/_big_assets/")
hist <- read.delim("histogram.tsv", header = TRUE, sep = "\t")
plot(hist)
barplot(hist$chance, names.arg=hist$dem, border=NA, main="April 27 Prediction - US Senate result", las=2)

 

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About the Author

Ryan Anderson

Ryan Anderson

Hi! I like to play with data, analytics and hack around with robots and gadgets in my garage. Lately I've been learning about machine learning.

About this blog

Description is...<br/>Data Analytics & Visualization Blog - Generating insights from Data since 2013

Created: July 25, 2014

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